Predicting Population Size
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia collects and analyzes demographic data from the Saudi population using various sources, including the Saudi Census. The General Authority for Statistics provides data from various population size counts and economic activities across the Kingdom, its regions, and metropolitan areas. Many important decisions are made using the estimated population dynamics including the investments in new infrastructure such as schools and hospitals; establishing new job training centers; and adjusting the emergency services to the size and characteristics of the demographics.
The census data and estimates are publicly available from the General Authority for Statistics of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Data scientists and statisticians use a variety of tools to create models for predictions, including models of population dynamics.
Using the available data for the area in which you live, chose at least four previous years published by the Authority to develop your discussion response. Use the following instructions as a guide:
- Create a least-square model of the total population for the area in which you live (Data is available at: https://www.stats.gov.sa/en/43).
- Take a photo or scan the model and add it as an image to the discussion.
- Estimate the population size in ten years from today using the least-square model.
- Discuss the limitations of the model.
- Define the disclaimers that can be disseminated together with the model to mitigate its misuse and the misinterpretation of its predictions.
Embed course material concepts, principles, and theories (require supporting citations) along with at least one scholarly, peer-reviewed reference in supporting your answer. Keep in mind that these scholarly references can be found in the Saudi Electronic Library by conducting an advanced search specific to scholarly references.
You are required to reply to at least two peer discussion question post answers to this weekly discussion question and/or your instructor’s response to your posting. These post replies need to be substantial and constructive in nature. They should add to the content of the post and evaluate/analyze that post answer. Normal course dialogue doesn’t fulfill these two peer replies but is expected throughout the course. Answering all course questions is also required.
